• → Game to take place at Xiaomi Arēna, Riga on Friday, August 29 at 18:00 EEST (16:00 BST)
• → Latvia are 0–1 after a 73–93 loss to Türkiye, who rode a second-half surge keyed by Alperen Şengün. Hosts need a comeback.
• → Estonia are 0–1 after a 64–98 defeat to Serbia, who controlled wire-to-wire.

Latvia–Estonia - Baltic derby as winless Group A rivals clash in Riga

Wednesday set the stakes. Latvia took a punch in their own building and now have to answer in a derby; Estonia saw how quickly a heavyweight can tilt the floor and will try to keep this one in the margins. The neighbors know each other’s rhythms—pace, corners, drag screens—and opening five minutes will tell you if Riga is ready to roar or tense up.

Latvia - reset the spine, turn defense into runway

The hosts need to shorten the game: clean the defensive glass, simplify the first pass, and let the crowd ride hit-aheads into early threes. Half-court, the fixes are basic but loud—deeper seals, stronger two-foot finishes, and ball movement that turns help into chase. If they own the “middle eight” around halftime, Friday becomes catharsis rather than calculus. (Türkiye’s separation arrived right there.

Estonia - stretch, skip, and live with the math

Against Serbia, the issue wasn’t courage; it was the avalanche of efficient looks the other way. The counter versus Latvia is tempo with purpose: Håkanson-led angle changes, pops to pull bigs up, and early pocket passes that force rotate-rotate-scramble. If the corners stay honest and the glass is a committee job, Estonia can trade above-the-break threes for Latvian twos and make it a fourth-quarter problem

The swing map (four factors)

• First-shot control: Latvia’s wings must finish possessions; every Estonian offensive rebound is a free look at rhythm.

• Coverage discipline on drag screens: Show-and-recover without gifting the corner skip; Estonia’s pop/short-roll reads live there.

• Turnover economy: Live-ball mistakes become threes; +4 in points off turnovers is Estonia’s path, neutral is Latvia’s.

• Whistle chess: Early fouls on either 5 reshuffle spacing—Latvia’s power game vs Estonia’s five-out looks.

Numbers to watch

• Latvia’s 3PA share in the first quarter. If they’re hunting feet-set threes early, the crowd turns into a weapon. Their streakiness is what they live and die with: if they can get into rhythm, they can beat anyone.

• Estonia’s defensive rebound rate. Anything north of 73% keeps the pace on their terms against a bigger host.

Stakes

A Latvia win steadies Group A and flips the mood from fraught to feverish. Estonia can turn the building against itself with a composed start and a close finish - exactly the blueprint underdogs used on Day 1 across the groups.

How to watch Latvia vs Estonia

Stream live and on-demand on Courtside 1891.

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