• → Game to take place at Arena Riga, Riga on Wednesday, 3 September 2025 at 21:15 Local Time (EEST)
• → Form check: Serbia handled Czechia 82–60 behind a fast 27–5 start; Turkiye cruised past Estonia 84–64 with Alperen Sengun (21-8-5) in control. Both are 4–0.
• → Context: Group A leadership on the line—and a heavyweight center clash: Nikola Jokic vs Alperen Sengun.

Top seed at stake, big men in charge

This one feels like May in Denver or Houston more than early September in Riga: everything bends around the bigs. Serbia and Turkiye have already booked Round of 16 spots this FIBA EuroBasket 2025, but the No. 1 seed matters for the bracket and the bragging rights. Expect a possessions game that looks like a masterclass in elbow offense, Spain pick-and-roll counters, and who wins the help-at-the-nail chess match.

Serbia: Jokic’s control room, minus Bogdanovic

No Bogdan Bogdanovic changes Serbia’s late-clock diet. Without their best pull-up wing, they’ve leaned even harder into Jokic-as-hub: delay actions, elbow splits, and guard-guard screens to force a switch before the entry. Vasilije Micic is the steering wheel—tilting the floor, manipulating tags, and feeding Jokic in the pocket—while Marko Guduric’s movement shooting keeps the weak-side “x-out” busy. Aleksa Avramovic gives them on-ball edge at the point of attack and can moonlight as a ghost-screener to spring Jokic for short rolls.

Up front, Filip Petrusev and Tristan Vukcevic offer stretch-5 spacing in second units; Nikola Milutinov is the battering ram if Serbia wants to test Turkiye’s size with bruising screening and glass work. The defense has been classic Pesic: switch selectively, peel-switch on drives, and flood the elbows against drivers—daring pick-and-pop bigs to make two in a row.

Jokic so far at EuroBasket 2025: 19.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 4.5 APG. He’s also coming off a 39-piece versus Latvia and barely needed to get out of second gear against Czechia.

Türkiye: Sengun’s toolbox with Larkin as the scalpel

Ergin Ataman is running the playbook through Sengun’s feel—post splits, handoffs into re-screens, and PnR where Shane Larkin toggles between primary handler and back-screen threat. Cedi Osman provides the size/shooting on the wing; Omer Yurtseven and Adem Bona give very different changeups at the 5 (touch and size vs. chaos and vertical pop). When Türkiye wants to speed the game, they flow quickly into a short-roll read for Sengun, trusting his interior passing to beat the low man.

Defensively, they’ve mixed drop and late switch, with flashes of zone after timeouts. The question here is discipline on Jokic’s catches: can they stunt-and-recover without flattening their shell? If they overhelp, Serbia’s cutters will feast; if they don’t, Jokic’s touch shots and kickouts add up.

Sengun so far at EuroBasket 2025: 20.0 PPG, 8.8 RPG, 6.5 APG, on ultra-efficient finishing. He’s dictating tempo without hijacking possessions.

Fault lines to watch

• The nail vs. the elbow: Serbia will park a body at the nail to bother Larkin/Sengun two-man actions; Turkiye must punish with skip passes and “shake” cuts.

• Help math on Jokic: Single coverage until deep paint touches, or auto-doubles on the catch? Turkiye’s timing and backside rotation decide whether this becomes a 30-assist Serbian night.

• Glass & fouls: If Sengun (or Yurtseven) collects early fouls, Ataman’s rotations get tight. Conversely, Milutinov minutes could swing second-chance points Serbia’s way.

Stakes

Winner takes Group A and a cleaner Round of 16 pathway, plus the psychological edge of having solved the other’s best stuff. Serbia is calibrating its clutch offense without Bogdanovic; Turkiye is hunting a statement win that says their defense can hold up when the ball finds Jokic every trip.

How to watch Serbia vs Turkiye

Stream Serbia vs Turkiye live on Courtside 1891 and pick the Max Event Pass for this event window or go Max Annual for year-round access to EuroBasket and other FIBA competitions. Regional availability and blackouts may apply.